Early tomorrow morning, the 2014 Oscar Nominees will be revealed at an ungodly hour, allowing people to bitch and moan about them for two full workdays. I’ve always enjoyed the Academy Awards Nominations because there’s so much that goes into getting on the final list – politics, money, word-of-mouth, and sometimes public support are needed to secure a shot at Hollywood’s ultimate prize.
My idea of the best in cinema in a given year is usually at-odds with how the Oscar voters feel. It has been like that for a while, so this is just a preface: I don’t think these are the films and people who deserve nominations, but instead what I think are the most likely group to succeed. I spend a good part of each year reading up on what is getting hot amongst voters and who is doing the work needed to have their name announced early one January morning, so this is my best educated guess.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years A Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Alternate: Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
I think those five are almost complete locks – only Julia Roberts is shaky, but that’s only because the movie is not the pedigree it felt like earlier in the year (she’s the best thing in it, though). If the voters are adventurous this year, you might see Spencer overtake her as the lone acting nominee from a solid actors-first picture. I doubt it though.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years A Slave
James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Alternate: Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
My riskiest bet in the whole thing – taking Gandolfini over Cooper. I don’t feel good about it but there are some precursors that point to this happening. The obvious one is that the voters may want to honor Gandolfini’s legacy (though there is an argument to be made that he is tied more to television than cinema) but I think the best precursor is his SAG nomination. Cooper was denied, and he’s also in a busy movie with a lot of actors who are getting more praise.
BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Alternate: Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Pretty boring list right there and those five are likely to be your nominees. Amy Adams has come on strong in the last two months with accolades for her middling performance in American Hustle, enough so that she might just bump Academy mainstay Meryl Streep off the shortlist. I’m holding out hope that the Academy gets a little weird and puts the best female performance of the year (Adele Exarchopoulos for Blue Is The Warmest Color) in there instead of either Adams or Dench.
BEST ACTOR
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All Is Lost
Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Again, these seem pretty set in stone. I can see the possibility of Redford getting left off the list only because the movie is so small and didn’t afford him any defining “hey I’m acting!” scenes like the other nominees. Leonardo winning at the Golden Globes showed that there is some broad love for his performance (which dumbfounds me), so he might be able to sneak in at the last minute.
BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Alternate: Spike Jonze, Her
Always bet on the DGA nominees – rarely do we see Oscar list differ from the DGA’s. Look, Russell is nominated alongside Scorsese. Seems prudent given that American Hustle is just cribbed from Scorsese’s far superior work in Goodfellas and Casino. Except this year, Russell out-Scorsese’d Scorsese. Isn’t that nice for the two of them? Somehow Scorsese is the one most at risk in this group – weird, right? – so if AMPAS dropped acid before filling out their ballots, Jonze would be the likely fifth nominee. But I’m thinking they’ll reward Jonze in the Original Screenplay section and give Marty the Director nomination.
BEST PICTURE
12 Years A Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street
Alternate: Inside Llewyn Davis, Philomena, Dallas Buyers Club
Ever since they changed the Best Picture rules a couple of years ago, it has actually made predicting this category a bit harder. Now people are constructing their nominations to appease genres rather than quality – remember that The Dark Knight missing out on a Best Picture nomination is what started this whole thing. So I’ve hedged my bets and selected seven nominees (I think that will be the number this year) – the weakest link being Her. It has gotten love from technical group awards in the lead up but it hasn’t really broken through mainstream yet. If they don’t go the bizarre route, they’ll stick with what they love: the Coen Brothers. I’ve thrown in Philomena and Dallas Buyers Club just in case they go for ten nominees this year, but I doubt those last two will have enough votes to get in.
You’ll find the remainder of my nomination predictions below.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
20 Feet From Stardom
The Act of Killing
Blackfish
God Loves Uganda
The Square
Alternate: Stories We Tell
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
The Grandmaster (Hong Kong)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
Two Lives (Germany)
Alternate: Omar (Palestine)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Croods
Frozen
The Wind Rises
Alternate: Despicable Me 2, Monsters University
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Cavedigger
Facing Fear
Karama Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
Alternate: Slomo
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Do I Have To Take Care of Everything?
Record/Play
That Wasn’t Me
Throat Song
Two
Alternate: The Voorman Problem
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Feral
Get A Horse!
Mr. Hublot
Possessions
Requiem For Romance
Alternate: Hollow Land
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
The Coen Brothers, Inside Llewyn Davis
Spike Jonze, Her
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
Eric Singer and David O. Russell, American Hustle
Alternate: Enough Said
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Tracy Letts, August: Osage County
Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, and Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
John Ridley, 12 Years A Slave
Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
Alternate: Philomena
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alex Ebert, All Is Lost
Thomas Newman, Saving Mr. Banks
Steven Price, Gravity
John Williams, The Book Thief
Hans Zimmer, 12 Years A Slave
Alternate: Philomena
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Frozen
The Great Gatsby
Her
Lee Daniel’s The Butler
Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom
Alternate: All Is Lost
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Sean Bobbitt, 12 Years A Slave
Roger Deakins, Prisoners
Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis
Philippe Le Sourd, The Grandmaster
Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
Alternate: Captain Phillips
BEST FILM EDITING
Jay Cassidy, American Hustle
Alfonso Cuaron and Mark Sanger, Gravity
Chris Rouse, Captain Phillips
Thelma Schoonmaker, The Wolf of Wall Street
Joe Walker, 12 Years A Slave
Alternate: Her
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
12 Years A Slave
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Alternate: Saving Mr. Banks
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
12 Years A Slave
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Saving Mr. Banks
Alternate: Her
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
American Hustle
Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
Alternate: The Lone Ranger
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Elysium
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
Alternate: World War Z
BEST SOUND EDITING
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Iron Man 3
Rush
World War Z
Alternate: All Is Lost
BEST SOUND MIXING
Captain Phillips
Frozen
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Inside Llewyn Davis
Alternate: World War Z
